This section summarises the findings of larger studies carried out by the UK Marine Monitoring and Assessment Strategy Community Productive Seas Evidence Group. It provides an economic and social analysis of the use of UK marine waters, highlighting how the economic contribution made by the various marine industries has changed since the Initial Assessment in 2012 and how the numbers of people employed in these sectors have responded to these changes. It also provides an analysis of how the main marine activities engage with labour markets and an indicative cost of degradation. 

Background

Changes in social and economic status

Goods and services provided by the marine economy

The direct total Gross Value Added (GVA), a measure of the value of goods and services produced by the sector to the economy, of the marine economy (as defined by the activities in Table 1) was estimated as £27 billion in 2015. This represents roughly 2% of the combined Gross Value Added of the UK economy in 2015 (Office for National Statistics, 2018a). The main activities are: the offshore oil and gas industry, excluding the services sector, which contributed a Gross Value Added of £11.5 billion; maritime transport, which had a Gross Value Added of £7.9 billion; telecommunications, with a Gross Value Added of £3.0 billion; leisure and recreation, which contributed a Gross Value Added of £1.4 billion; and marine renewable energy, which had a Gross Value Added of £1.1 billion. The other 11 marine activities that were considered had a total combined Gross Value Added of £2.2 billion. The estimated Gross Value Added of the marine economy in 2008 was £51 billion, which means there has been a significant £24 billion reduction in contribution since then. The main change arises from a reduction in Gross Value Added of £25.5 billion for the offshore oil and gas industry, which was due primarily to a reduction in output of North Sea oil and gas.

Predicted changes to Gross Value Added in the coming decade

Two recent horizon-scanning projects (the UK Government Office for Science “Future of the Seas” Foresight project and the OECD “The Ocean Economy in 2030” report (OECD, 2016) predict a very large rise in the Gross Value Added of the offshore wind sector in the coming decades. These reports also predict strong growth in seaborne trade and marine aquaculture industries, and the emergence of a marine autonomous vehicles sector. Revenue from Marine biotechnology is also predicted to grow significantly, with a number of applications already in early development which could impact across a range of high profile and important areas such as energy, human health, and food production.

Employment of people in the marine economy

The total number of people employed by the marine economy was estimated at 341,000 full time equivalent (FTE) employees in 2015. This represents roughly 1% of the total number of people employed in the UK in 2015 (Office for National Statistics, 2018b). The sectors with the highest employment were: maritime transport, which had 131,900 full time equivalents in 2015; leisure and recreation, with 86,400 full time equivalents; defence, which had 42,670 full time equivalents; oil and gas, with 38,200 full time equivalents; and telecommunications, which had 26,750 full time equivalents. Other marine activities had a combined 18,000 full time equivalents.

Table 1 shows the key economic indicators of Gross Value Added, number of people employed (full time equivalents), and productivity trends for 16 major marine activities in 2015. Comparisons with 2008 are limited to broad trends due to changes in the way that statistics have been collected for several industries. Where no firm data was available, estimates are used.

Table 1. Principal human activities in UK seas and the Gross Value Added and productivity trend in 2015.

Activity

Gross Value Added (GVA), £m

Numbers employed (FTE)

Productivity trend over recent yearsr

GVA - Reference year

Data source (links to full data sources in “Table 2.1 references” below

Oil and Gas

11,500

38,200

Significant decrease

2015

GVA: Office for National Statistics estimate (provided by Oil and Gas Authority 14.06.14) – data from 2015

Employment: Oil and Gas UK – data from 2015

Productivity: Oil and Gas UK (pers. comm.)

Maritime Transport

7,868

 

130,900 a

No significant change

2015

GVA and employment: Oxford Economics (2015) – data from 2013

Productivity: HM Government (2014), collated in Celtic Seas Partnership (2016)

Telecommunications

3,003

26,750

Increase

2015

GVA: MSCC (2015) – data from 2008;

Employment: (Pugh, 2008)b – data from 2008

Leisure and recreation

1,435

86,400

No significant change

2015

GVA: MSCC (2015) – data from 2008;

Employment: Celtic Seas Partnership (2016)c – data from 2012,

Productivity: Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) - data from 2006-2015

Defence – Military

521

42,670 d

 

Decrease

2015

GVA: UKMMAS (2010) – data from 2008;

Employment: MOD (2015) and MOD (2016) – data from 2015/16;

Productivity: Celtic Seas Partnership (2016)e – data from 1996-2015

Fisheries

356

8,135

Increase f

2015

GVA: Office for National Statistics Annual Business Survey (provided by Cefas) – data from 2015

Employment: STECF (2015) – data from 2013

Productivity: STECF (2015) – data from 2008-2013

Aquaculture

409

3,231

No significant change g

2015

GVA: SSPO (2014), UKMMAS (2010) h – data from 2013

Employment: Cefas (2015) – data from 2012

Productivity: MSS (2015a,2015b), Cefas (2015) collated in Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) – data from 2009-2014

Water abstraction

167

No information sourced

No significant change

2015

UKMMAS (2010)i - GVA data from 2009, productivity trend from 2009-2015

Mineral extraction

60

408 j

No significant change

2015

GVA: MSCC (2015) k – data from 2008

Employment: BMAPA, 2015 (cited in Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) – data from 2014

Productivity trend: BMAPA (2015), cited in Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) - data from 2010-2014

Renewable energy

1,124 L

4,766 m

Significant increase

2015

GVA: BIS (2015): The Size and Performance of the UK Low Carbon Economy: 2010-2013 - data from 2013

 

Employment: ONS: Low carbon and renewable energy economy, final estimates: 2014; RenewableUK Working for a Green Britain & Northern Ireland 2013-23. - Data from 2014 (offshore) and 2013 (onshore). Productivity trend data 2012 onwards

 

Coastal defence

405

No information sourced

Increase

2015/16

Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) n – GVA data from 2015, productivity trend data 2005-2015

Waste disposal

10

No information sourced

No significant change

2015

UKMMAS (2010)o – GVA data from 2009, productivity trend data from 2009-2015

Education

102

No information sourced

Increase

2015

UKMMAS (2010)p – GVA data from 2009, productivity trend data 2009-2015

Table compiled by marine consultants ABPmer and reviewed by the joint industry - government “Productive Seas Evidence Group” of the Marine Science Coordination Committee.

a UK-based jobs in the shipping industry

b There is very low confidence in this value, as the original 2008 figure on which this 2015 figure is based on was reported at the time to be uncertain and an underestimate: “an indicative value of £2.7 billion has been estimated based on the number of international phone calls. However, this figure is conservative as it does not include the value of internet and data capacity which are now the primary commodity and which are increasing.” (Charting progress 2 productive seas feeder report, page 349).

c The value published for Leisure and Recreation employment was used in Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) report for the calculation of Full Time Equivalent estimates for the Celtic Sea (UK along with estimates from Ireland and France), however the final Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) report does not show disaggregated values for the UK. Values shown for leisure and recreation include: leisure boating, sea angling, surfing, coastal walking and other activities (general leisure time at the beach, outdoor swimming, cliff climbing, SCUBA diving, coasteering, kitesurfing). The data relating to the value of recreational activities related to a range of years (for example 2011-2013). The values do not include secondary value or employment relating to coastal tourism, accommodation and food expenditure. With regard to recent trends, growth rates vary between different activities. There has been very little change in leisure boating participation between 2006 and 2014. Participation in some other activities has fallen since 2006 (including coastal walking, outdoor swimming and diving activities), however, this has been offset to some extent by growth in other activities including surfing, angling, kite-surfing, cliff climbing and general leisure time at the beach (Celtic Seas Partnership (2016)). Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) gives an (unpublished) estimate of leisure and recreation Gross Value Added as £3,024m

d Figures for the Navy: 38,140 military staff; 4,450 civilian staff

e Military Defence Gross Value Added data sources: MSCC (2015) (2012 value uprated using GDP deflator). Employment data sources MOD (2015) and MOD (2016). The productivity trend is based on the reduction in UK defence expenditure between 1996 (budget was >2.5% of GDP) and 2014 (budget c. 2% of GDP) Celtic Seas Partnership (2016).

f Productivity (measured as Gross Value Added per Full Time Equivalent) increasing (STECF, 2015)

g + (Atlantic salmon); 0 (shellfish Scotland, Wales); - (shellfish England); -- (shellfish, NI)

h Aquaculture. The indicative estimate of Gross Value Added was based on the assumption that the farm gate value of Scottish Atlantic salmon in 2013 comprised 93% of the first sale value of all UK finfish and shellfish production in 2013 (the same proportion of total turnover as in 2007; UKMMAS, 2010). Based on Scottish salmon having a farm gate value of £677 million in 2013, it was estimated that the farm gate value of all the UK’s marine finfish and shellfish production was approximately £728 million in 2013, and using a value-added factor of 0.55 (UKMMAS, 2010) a Gross Value Added of £400 million. Uprated to 2015 (using GDP deflators) this value was estimated at £408 million. This methodology was used because up to date estimates of economic value of aquaculture in the UK (the majority of which relates to aquaculture undertaken in Scotland) are relatively easy to obtain compared to some other sectors - hence it was possible to obtain the most up to date estimate at the time of calculation.

This estimate is relatively high compared to an alternative estimate of Gross Value Added in 2015 calculated by uprating the 2007 UKMMAS value of Gross Value Added (£193 million in 2007 to £212 million in 2015), whilst another source indicated that the Gross Value Added of the marine aquaculture sector in the UK in 2014 was £241 million (Statista, 2019).

i Water abstraction data source UKMMAS, (2010) (2009 investment value uprated using GDP deflator). The static productivity trend is based on UKMMAS (2010) which stated that while some coastal power stations would be decommissioned over the next two decades, it is likely that new coastal nuclear stations will be built, hence likely resulting in a static overall trend.

j Sea-based staff 351; shore-based staff 58

k Mineral extraction (note this sector relates to the extraction of marine aggregates from the seabed) data sources: MSCC (2015) (2012 value uprated using GDP deflator). Note in addition to ship and shore based staff in the marine aggregates extraction sector, additional sector-related employment includes staff on wharves receiving aggregates, staff related to the primary delivery and a significant number of indirect jobs further down the supply chain (Celtic Seas Partnership (2016)).

L Offshore wind: 1,022; Marine: 102

m Offshore wind: 6,500; Marine: 1,700

n Coastal Defence – based on expenditure on coastal and river flood defences for 2015/16 as identified in Celtic Seas Partnership (2016). Where investment values for certain administrations in 2015/16 were not available (for example Scotland and Wales), historical investment values (from 2011/12 for Wales and Scotland) were uprated to 2015/16 values using HMT GDP deflators. 50% of the total UK investment in coastal and river flood defences in 2015/16 was then assumed to be the value invested directly in marine related defences (assumption by Pugh, 2008 as described in UKMMAS, 2010). The projected productivity trend is an assumption based on historical expenditure on flood defence and coastal protection in England (not the whole UK) from 2005-2015 (Celtic Seas Partnership (2016)). Funding increases in 2013/14, 2014/15 and 2015/16 related to an additional £270 million funding made available following the flooding in winter 2013/14.

o Waste disposal data sources UKMMAS (2010) (2009 value uprated using GDP deflator). The static productivity trend is based on the Celtic Seas Partnership (2016), that states waste disposal is unlikely to change significantly up to 2036 – and hence it was assumed that it has not changed significantly since UKMMAS, 2010.

p Education data source UKMMAS (2010) (2009 value uprated using GDP deflator). The productivity trend is based on UKMMAS (2010) which stated that owing to an increased focus on the marine environment (various Marine Acts and marine planning initiatives) demand for related marine education programmes was likely to increase.

q R&D data source UKMMAS (2010) (2007 Research Council spending on marine research and 2008 Gross Value Added of Higher Education Institutions involved in marine research, uprated using GDP deflators). The productivity trend has been shown as positive, based on recent historical funding for UK Research Councils (£1.8 million in 2005/06 to £3.1 million in 2014/15; Research Councils UK, 2014). However, it should be noted that the data related to funding for all seven UK Research Councils of which three are not relevant to the marine sector. However, it has been assumed that the general increase across the Research Councils will also have been reflected in the funding for marine-related R&D via the relevant research Councils.

r The base year varies from 2008 to 2012.

Further information

The data contained in the Table 1 refers to direct Gross Value Added and employment, it does not capture indirect or induced activity. Several sources of uncertainty mean that the data in Table 1 should be seen as an estimate rather than definitive. Because information on different activities has been collected from different sources and according to different methodologies there is a risk of ‘double counting’. Furthermore, while all Gross Value Added data is referenced to 2015, the most complete information for some activities is from other years and has been uprated by inflation. This introduces uncertainty as to the accuracy of the ‘2015 referenced’ figures, with a larger uncertainty the older the source data. Employment data has been collected from different years and not uprated. For some activities, there is a difference in methodology between the data used in this report and the data reported in the Marine Strategy Part 1 (HM Government, 2012).

 

Results

Conclusions

Knowledge gaps

References

British Marine Aggregate Producers Association (BMAPA) (2015) ‘Strength from the depths: Ninth sustainable development report for the British marine aggregate industry December, 2015 British Marine Aggregate Producers Association and Mineral Product Association (viewed on 14 January 2019)

Brennan, J, Little, B and Locke, W, 2006 Higher education’s effects on disadvantaged groups and communities: Report of an ESRC Network on cross-regional perspectives on the transformative impact of higher education on disadvantaged groups and communities, September 2006.

Cefas (2015) ‘Aquaculture statistics for the UK with a focus on England and Wales -: 2012’ (viewed on 14 January 2019)

Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) Future Trends in Celtic Seas – Baseline report’ A report produced by ABPmer and ICF for WWF-UK (viewed on 14 January 2019)

Department for Business Information and Skills (BIS) (2015) ‘The Size and Performance of the UK Low Carbon Economy: Report for 2010-2013’ (viewed on 14 January 2019)

HM Government (2014) ‘Port Traffic Statistics: methods and quality’ Department for Transport (viewed on 14 January 2019)

HM Government (2012) ‘Marine Strategy Part One: UK Initial Assessment and Good Environmental Status’ (viewed on 5 July 2018)

HM Government (2015) ‘Marine Strategy Part Three: UK Programme of Measures’ December 2015 (viewed on 5 July 2018)

Jones E (2013) ‘The impact of sea fishing on social well-being in Scottish fishing communities’ A report for the Marine Analytical Unit, Marine Scotland (viewed on 14 January 2019)

Marine Scotland (2014) ‘An Assessment of the Benefits to Scotland of Aquaculture’ Scottish Government (viewed on 14 January 2019)

Marine Management Organization (MMO) (2014) ‘UK Sea Fisheries Statistics 2014 (viewed on 14 January 2019)

Ministry of Defence (MOD) (2015) ‘Quarterly Civilian Personnel Report’ Oct 2015 (viewed on 14 January 2019)

Ministry of Defence (MOD) (2016) ‘UK Armed Forces Monthly Service Personnel Statistics’ Jan 2016 (viewed on 14 January 2019)

Marine Science Co-ordination Committee (MSCC) (2015) ‘Economic value and employment in the UK of activities carried out in the marine environment (viewed on 14 January 2019)

Marine Scotland Science (MSS) (2015a) ‘Marine Science Scotland, Scottish Shellfish Farm Production Survey 2014 Report (viewed on 14 January 2019)

Marine Scotland Science (MSS) (2015b) ‘Marine Science Scotland, Scottish Fish Farm Production Survey 2014 Report’ (viewed on 14 January 2019)

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (2016) ‘The Ocean Economy in 2030’ OECD Publishing, Paris (viewed on 14 January 2019)

Oil and Gas UK (2017) ‘Oil and gas UK Figures show impact of oil price downturn on jobs’ (viewed on 14 January 2019)

Office for National Statistics (ONS) (2014) ‘Low carbon and renewable energy economy, final estimates: 2014 (viewed on 14 January 2019)

Office for National Statistics (ONS) (2018a) ‘Gross Value Added (Average) at basic prices: CP SA £m’ (viewed on 14 January 2019)

Office for National Statistics (ONS) ‘Number of People in Employment (aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted)’ (viewed on 14 January 2019)

Oxford Economics (2015) ‘The economic impact of the UK Maritime Services Sector: Combined Oxford Economics (viewed on 14 January 2019)

Pugh (2008) ‘Socio-economic indicators of marine-related activities in the UK economy.

Reed M, Courtney P, Dwyer J, Griffiths B, Jones O, Lewis N, Moseley M, Phillipson J, Powell J, Ross N, Urquhart J (2011) ‘The social impacts of England’s inshore fishing industry: Final report’ Social Impacts of fishing (NE0108), Countryside and Community Research Institute, University of Gloucestershire (viewed on 14 January 2019)

RenewableUK (2013) ‘Working for a Green Britain & Northern Ireland 2013-23 (viewed on 14 January 2019)

Research Councils UK (2014) Research Funding across UK regions and devolved administrations. (viewed on 1 April 2019)

Scientific, Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries (STECF) (2015) ‘The 2015 Annual Economic Report on the EU Fishing Fleet (STECF-15-07)’ Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, EUR XXXX EN, JRC XXX, 434 pp. (viewed on 26 March 2019)

Scottish Salmon Producers Organisation (SSPO) (2014) ‘Scottish salmon farming annual report 2014 (viewed on 14 January 2019)

Statista (2019) ‘Gross value added (GVA) of marine aquaculture enterprises in the United Kingdom (UK) from 2008 to 2017* (in million GBP)’ (viewed on 26 March 2019)

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Acknowledgements

Assessment Metadata

Please contact marinestrategy@defra.gov.uk for metadata information