Social and economic analysis
This section summarises the findings of larger studies carried out by the UK Marine Monitoring and Assessment Strategy Community Productive Seas Evidence Group. It provides an economic and social analysis of the use of UK marine waters, highlighting how the economic contribution made by the various marine industries has changed since the Initial Assessment in 2012 and how the numbers of people employed in these sectors have responded to these changes. It also provides an analysis of how the main marine activities engage with labour markets and an indicative cost of degradation.
Background
Changes in social and economic status
Goods and services provided by the marine economy
The direct total Gross Value Added (GVA), a measure of the value of goods and services produced by the sector to the economy, of the marine economy (as defined by the activities in Table 1) was estimated as £27 billion in 2015. This represents roughly 2% of the combined Gross Value Added of the UK economy in 2015 (Office for National Statistics, 2018a). The main activities are: the offshore oil and gas industry, excluding the services sector, which contributed a Gross Value Added of £11.5 billion; maritime transport, which had a Gross Value Added of £7.9 billion; telecommunications, with a Gross Value Added of £3.0 billion; leisure and recreation, which contributed a Gross Value Added of £1.4 billion; and marine renewable energy, which had a Gross Value Added of £1.1 billion. The other 11 marine activities that were considered had a total combined Gross Value Added of £2.2 billion. The estimated Gross Value Added of the marine economy in 2008 was £51 billion, which means there has been a significant £24 billion reduction in contribution since then. The main change arises from a reduction in Gross Value Added of £25.5 billion for the offshore oil and gas industry, which was due primarily to a reduction in output of North Sea oil and gas.
Predicted changes to Gross Value Added in the coming decade
Two recent horizon-scanning projects (the UK Government Office for Science “Future of the Seas” Foresight project and the OECD “The Ocean Economy in 2030” report (OECD, 2016) predict a very large rise in the Gross Value Added of the offshore wind sector in the coming decades. These reports also predict strong growth in seaborne trade and marine aquaculture industries, and the emergence of a marine autonomous vehicles sector. Revenue from Marine biotechnology is also predicted to grow significantly, with a number of applications already in early development which could impact across a range of high profile and important areas such as energy, human health, and food production.
Employment of people in the marine economy
The total number of people employed by the marine economy was estimated at 341,000 full time equivalent (FTE) employees in 2015. This represents roughly 1% of the total number of people employed in the UK in 2015 (Office for National Statistics, 2018b). The sectors with the highest employment were: maritime transport, which had 131,900 full time equivalents in 2015; leisure and recreation, with 86,400 full time equivalents; defence, which had 42,670 full time equivalents; oil and gas, with 38,200 full time equivalents; and telecommunications, which had 26,750 full time equivalents. Other marine activities had a combined 18,000 full time equivalents.
Table 1 shows the key economic indicators of Gross Value Added, number of people employed (full time equivalents), and productivity trends for 16 major marine activities in 2015. Comparisons with 2008 are limited to broad trends due to changes in the way that statistics have been collected for several industries. Where no firm data was available, estimates are used.
Table 1. Principal human activities in UK seas and the Gross Value Added and productivity trend in 2015.
|
Activity |
Gross Value Added (GVA), £m |
Numbers employed (FTE) |
Productivity trend over recent yearsr |
GVA - Reference year |
Data source (links to full data sources in “Table 2.1 references” below |
|
Oil and Gas |
11,500 |
38,200 |
Significant decrease |
2015 |
GVA: Office for National Statistics estimate (provided by Oil and Gas Authority 14.06.14) – data from 2015 Employment: Oil and Gas UK – data from 2015 Productivity: Oil and Gas UK (pers. comm.) |
|
Maritime Transport |
7,868
|
130,900 a |
No significant change |
2015 |
GVA and employment: Oxford Economics (2015) – data from 2013 Productivity: HM Government (2014), collated in Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) |
|
Telecommunications |
3,003 |
26,750 |
Increase |
2015 |
GVA: MSCC (2015) – data from 2008; Employment: (Pugh, 2008)b – data from 2008 |
|
Leisure and recreation |
1,435 |
86,400 |
No significant change |
2015 |
GVA: MSCC (2015) – data from 2008; Employment: Celtic Seas Partnership (2016)c – data from 2012, Productivity: Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) - data from 2006-2015 |
|
Defence – Military |
521 |
42,670 d
|
Decrease |
2015 |
GVA: UKMMAS (2010) – data from 2008; Employment: MOD (2015) and MOD (2016) – data from 2015/16; Productivity: Celtic Seas Partnership (2016)e – data from 1996-2015 |
|
Fisheries |
356 |
8,135 |
Increase f |
2015 |
GVA: Office for National Statistics Annual Business Survey (provided by Cefas) – data from 2015 Employment: STECF (2015) – data from 2013 Productivity: STECF (2015) – data from 2008-2013 |
|
Aquaculture |
409 |
3,231 |
No significant change g |
2015 |
GVA: SSPO (2014), UKMMAS (2010) h – data from 2013 Employment: Cefas (2015) – data from 2012 Productivity: MSS (2015a,2015b), Cefas (2015) collated in Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) – data from 2009-2014 |
|
Water abstraction |
167 |
No information sourced |
No significant change |
2015 |
UKMMAS (2010)i - GVA data from 2009, productivity trend from 2009-2015 |
|
Mineral extraction |
60 |
408 j |
No significant change |
2015 |
GVA: MSCC (2015) k – data from 2008 Employment: BMAPA, 2015 (cited in Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) – data from 2014 Productivity trend: BMAPA (2015), cited in Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) - data from 2010-2014 |
|
Renewable energy |
1,124 L |
4,766 m |
Significant increase |
2015 |
GVA: BIS (2015): The Size and Performance of the UK Low Carbon Economy: 2010-2013 - data from 2013
Employment: ONS: Low carbon and renewable energy economy, final estimates: 2014; RenewableUK Working for a Green Britain & Northern Ireland 2013-23. - Data from 2014 (offshore) and 2013 (onshore). Productivity trend data 2012 onwards
|
|
Coastal defence |
405 |
No information sourced |
Increase |
2015/16 |
Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) n – GVA data from 2015, productivity trend data 2005-2015 |
|
Waste disposal |
10 |
No information sourced |
No significant change |
2015 |
UKMMAS (2010)o – GVA data from 2009, productivity trend data from 2009-2015 |
|
Education |
102 |
No information sourced |
Increase |
2015 |
UKMMAS (2010)p – GVA data from 2009, productivity trend data 2009-2015 |
Table compiled by marine consultants ABPmer and reviewed by the joint industry - government “Productive Seas Evidence Group” of the Marine Science Coordination Committee.
a UK-based jobs in the shipping industry
b There is very low confidence in this value, as the original 2008 figure on which this 2015 figure is based on was reported at the time to be uncertain and an underestimate: “an indicative value of £2.7 billion has been estimated based on the number of international phone calls. However, this figure is conservative as it does not include the value of internet and data capacity which are now the primary commodity and which are increasing.” (Charting progress 2 productive seas feeder report, page 349).
c The value published for Leisure and Recreation employment was used in Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) report for the calculation of Full Time Equivalent estimates for the Celtic Sea (UK along with estimates from Ireland and France), however the final Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) report does not show disaggregated values for the UK. Values shown for leisure and recreation include: leisure boating, sea angling, surfing, coastal walking and other activities (general leisure time at the beach, outdoor swimming, cliff climbing, SCUBA diving, coasteering, kitesurfing). The data relating to the value of recreational activities related to a range of years (for example 2011-2013). The values do not include secondary value or employment relating to coastal tourism, accommodation and food expenditure. With regard to recent trends, growth rates vary between different activities. There has been very little change in leisure boating participation between 2006 and 2014. Participation in some other activities has fallen since 2006 (including coastal walking, outdoor swimming and diving activities), however, this has been offset to some extent by growth in other activities including surfing, angling, kite-surfing, cliff climbing and general leisure time at the beach (Celtic Seas Partnership (2016)). Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) gives an (unpublished) estimate of leisure and recreation Gross Value Added as £3,024m
d Figures for the Navy: 38,140 military staff; 4,450 civilian staff
e Military Defence Gross Value Added data sources: MSCC (2015) (2012 value uprated using GDP deflator). Employment data sources MOD (2015) and MOD (2016). The productivity trend is based on the reduction in UK defence expenditure between 1996 (budget was >2.5% of GDP) and 2014 (budget c. 2% of GDP) Celtic Seas Partnership (2016).
f Productivity (measured as Gross Value Added per Full Time Equivalent) increasing (STECF, 2015)
g + (Atlantic salmon); 0 (shellfish Scotland, Wales); - (shellfish England); -- (shellfish, NI)
h Aquaculture. The indicative estimate of Gross Value Added was based on the assumption that the farm gate value of Scottish Atlantic salmon in 2013 comprised 93% of the first sale value of all UK finfish and shellfish production in 2013 (the same proportion of total turnover as in 2007; UKMMAS, 2010). Based on Scottish salmon having a farm gate value of £677 million in 2013, it was estimated that the farm gate value of all the UK’s marine finfish and shellfish production was approximately £728 million in 2013, and using a value-added factor of 0.55 (UKMMAS, 2010) a Gross Value Added of £400 million. Uprated to 2015 (using GDP deflators) this value was estimated at £408 million. This methodology was used because up to date estimates of economic value of aquaculture in the UK (the majority of which relates to aquaculture undertaken in Scotland) are relatively easy to obtain compared to some other sectors - hence it was possible to obtain the most up to date estimate at the time of calculation.
This estimate is relatively high compared to an alternative estimate of Gross Value Added in 2015 calculated by uprating the 2007 UKMMAS value of Gross Value Added (£193 million in 2007 to £212 million in 2015), whilst another source indicated that the Gross Value Added of the marine aquaculture sector in the UK in 2014 was £241 million (Statista, 2019).
i Water abstraction data source UKMMAS, (2010) (2009 investment value uprated using GDP deflator). The static productivity trend is based on UKMMAS (2010) which stated that while some coastal power stations would be decommissioned over the next two decades, it is likely that new coastal nuclear stations will be built, hence likely resulting in a static overall trend.
j Sea-based staff 351; shore-based staff 58
k Mineral extraction (note this sector relates to the extraction of marine aggregates from the seabed) data sources: MSCC (2015) (2012 value uprated using GDP deflator). Note in addition to ship and shore based staff in the marine aggregates extraction sector, additional sector-related employment includes staff on wharves receiving aggregates, staff related to the primary delivery and a significant number of indirect jobs further down the supply chain (Celtic Seas Partnership (2016)).
L Offshore wind: 1,022; Marine: 102
m Offshore wind: 6,500; Marine: 1,700
n Coastal Defence – based on expenditure on coastal and river flood defences for 2015/16 as identified in Celtic Seas Partnership (2016). Where investment values for certain administrations in 2015/16 were not available (for example Scotland and Wales), historical investment values (from 2011/12 for Wales and Scotland) were uprated to 2015/16 values using HMT GDP deflators. 50% of the total UK investment in coastal and river flood defences in 2015/16 was then assumed to be the value invested directly in marine related defences (assumption by Pugh, 2008 as described in UKMMAS, 2010). The projected productivity trend is an assumption based on historical expenditure on flood defence and coastal protection in England (not the whole UK) from 2005-2015 (Celtic Seas Partnership (2016)). Funding increases in 2013/14, 2014/15 and 2015/16 related to an additional £270 million funding made available following the flooding in winter 2013/14.
o Waste disposal data sources UKMMAS (2010) (2009 value uprated using GDP deflator). The static productivity trend is based on the Celtic Seas Partnership (2016), that states waste disposal is unlikely to change significantly up to 2036 – and hence it was assumed that it has not changed significantly since UKMMAS, 2010.
p Education data source UKMMAS (2010) (2009 value uprated using GDP deflator). The productivity trend is based on UKMMAS (2010) which stated that owing to an increased focus on the marine environment (various Marine Acts and marine planning initiatives) demand for related marine education programmes was likely to increase.
q R&D data source UKMMAS (2010) (2007 Research Council spending on marine research and 2008 Gross Value Added of Higher Education Institutions involved in marine research, uprated using GDP deflators). The productivity trend has been shown as positive, based on recent historical funding for UK Research Councils (£1.8 million in 2005/06 to £3.1 million in 2014/15; Research Councils UK, 2014). However, it should be noted that the data related to funding for all seven UK Research Councils of which three are not relevant to the marine sector. However, it has been assumed that the general increase across the Research Councils will also have been reflected in the funding for marine-related R&D via the relevant research Councils.
r The base year varies from 2008 to 2012.
Further information
The data contained in the Table 1 refers to direct Gross Value Added and employment, it does not capture indirect or induced activity. Several sources of uncertainty mean that the data in Table 1 should be seen as an estimate rather than definitive. Because information on different activities has been collected from different sources and according to different methodologies there is a risk of ‘double counting’. Furthermore, while all Gross Value Added data is referenced to 2015, the most complete information for some activities is from other years and has been uprated by inflation. This introduces uncertainty as to the accuracy of the ‘2015 referenced’ figures, with a larger uncertainty the older the source data. Employment data has been collected from different years and not uprated. For some activities, there is a difference in methodology between the data used in this report and the data reported in the Marine Strategy Part 1 (HM Government, 2012).
Results
Social analysis of marine activities on labour markets
We also carried out a social analysis of the impact of marine activities on the local labour market across several UK regions. This examined where key marine activities create employment and their effects on local labour utilisation (skills, job growth, unemployment), local labour productivity (wages, new businesses, investment), and if the activity is likely to impact deprivation levels in the local area. This showed that different activities have differing effects on the local labour market, depending on each industry’s particular characteristics. Some industries (such as the energy industry) tend to create jobs that are higher skilled in nature, while other industries (such as the tourism industry) tend to create jobs that are lower skilled in nature and may be part time.
There is also a variation in the effect that marine activities have on wage levels in the local labour market. Industries which draw heavily on local labour resources (such as the marine transport industry) can have a strong positive effect on local wages, while other industries, such as telecommunications and cabling, have a smaller impact from a highly skilled workforce. The impact that marine activities have on deprivation levels in the local area is connected to the effect of marine activities on local labour utilisation and productivity.
For each marine activity, Table 2 outlines the impact on: where the activity creates employment; what the effects are on local labour utilisation (skills, job growth, unemployment), what the effects are on local labour productivity (wages, new businesses, investment) and if the activity is likely to impact deprivation levels in the local area. Information in the table is expert opinion from marine consultants ABPmer and has been reviewed by the joint industry - government “Productive Seas Evidence Group” of the Marine Science Coordination Committee (MSCC).
Table 2 (a - n). Summary social analysis of principle human activities
|
(a) Energy production and infrastructure (oil and gas) |
|
|
Creation of employment 2015 estimate of employment supported by the industry is 375,000 (38,200 in direct jobs and 331,400 across indirect and induced jobs (Oil and Gas UK)). These jobs are distributed around the UK: Scotland 35%; Greater London 13%; South East 12%; North West 7%; East of England 6%; West Midlands 6%; Yorkshire and the Humber 6%; South West 5%; East Midlands 5%; Wales 3%; North East 3% (data provided by Oil and Gas UK on 19 May 2016). |
Effects on local labour utilisation (skills, job growth, unemployment) Local effects variable, dependent upon location and activities – effects are ranked as medium to high. Jobs require highly skilled, skilled and semi-skilled staff. Impacts on the rates of future labour utilisation are dependent on market conditions. As the industry declines there will be growth in decommissioning activities offering alternative opportunities for employment. Direct employment benefits the broader local economy as incomes are re-spent in local businesses. |
|
Effects on local labour productivity (including wages, new businesses, investment) Local effects are variable, dependent upon the specific activities and location – effects are ranked as medium to high. It is likely that operations and maintenance activities will continue around the UK, whilst manufacturing will continue to take place locally or remotely. An increase in decommissioning activities will require a mix of highly skilled, skilled and semi-skilled employment to continue. Infrastructure will be brought to shore for disposal, which will create alternative employment opportunities. |
Likely effects on deprivation levels in the local area Local effects are variable, dependent upon the specific activities and location – effects are ranked as medium to high. Continued operations and maintenance plus decommissioning activities will ensure employment continues beyond 2020. |
|
(b) Offshore renewable energy |
|
|
Creation of employment Wave and Tidal: West and North coasts of Scotland; Northern Ireland; North Wales; South West of England. Offshore Wind: North Sea, Irish Sea, Eastern Channel, Western Channel and Celtic Sea, and Western Scotland |
Effects on local labour utilisation (skills, job growth, unemployment) Local effects are variable, dependent upon the specific activities and location. Effects are more likely in relatively deprived port areas with high levels of semi-skilled unemployment. New manufacturing facilities could have significant impact on labour utilisation rates, local Gross Domestic Product and could improve skills and employment rates. In some areas the jobs generated will require skilled staff. Operations and maintenance provide a mix of skilled and semi-skilled employment, both as new employment and diversification in existing maritime sectors experiencing a decline. |
|
Effects on local labour productivity (including wages, new businesses, investment) Local effects are variable, dependent upon the specific activities and location – effects are ranked as medium to high. New manufacturing, fabrication, operation and maintenance activities are likely to be close to offshore renewable energy deployment sites. This will create a mix of highly skilled, skilled and semi-skilled employment, increasing local Gross Domestic Product and standards of living in traditionally economically under developed areas of the UK. |
Likely effects on deprivation levels in the local area Local effects are variable, dependent upon the specific activities and location – effects are ranked as medium to high. At a local level, there will be significant opportunity for the creation of new semi-skilled and skilled jobs, and for diversification from within declining local sectors (though for less skilled jobs). Most deployment and related activity will take place in traditional areas of deprivation and industrial decline, with local communities benefiting from direct employment. Some rural peripheral communities may also experience a trickledown effect. |
|
(c) Maritime transport |
|
|
Creation of employment UK-wide. Employment in this sector is primarily linked to port activity. There are 53 major ports in the UK (defined as those with cargo volumes of at least 1 million tonnes annually). In 2017, the highest tonnage of cargo was handled by Grimsby and Immingham (Humber), London Gateway, Southampton, Milford Haven, Liverpool, Felixstowe, Forth, Dover, and Tees and Hartlepool. (UK Port Freight Statistics) There are also 108 smaller (minor) ports in the UK. |
Effects on local labour utilisation (skills, job growth, unemployment) Local effects are ranked as high. Labour catchment areas for marine transport industries tends to be relatively local. There is demand for lower skilled labour (implying job creation for those skills), however lower skill jobs make a smaller contribution to productivity growth. |
|
Effects on local labour productivity (including wages, new businesses, investment) Local effects are ranked as high. Wages are likely to be above the minimum wage threshold and in some of the largest port development projects (such as London Gateway), there can be positive connectivity spin offs for local economies. |
Likely effects on deprivation levels in the local area Local effects are ranked as high. Ports employ relatively high proportions of lower skilled labour in the local area but employment levels will be linked to wider economic drivers. |
|
(d) Telecommunications and cabling |
|
|
Creation of employment Sub-sea telecommunications cables are distributed throughout the UK, linking the UK, Ireland and France to each other and to the USA, Canada and mainland Europe. Employment in this sector will relate to the installation and/or maintenance of the subsea cables. |
Effects on local labour utilisation (skills, job growth, unemployment) Local effects are ranked as low. Cable-laying contractors are international and the jobs created are likely to be highly specialised. Manufacture takes place at only a small number of sites. |
|
Effects on local labour productivity (including wages, new businesses, investment) Local effects are ranked as low. Telecommunications cabling marine activity is important in facilitating international communications. However, the prevalence of related activities will not in themselves provide improvement in labour productivity for coastal communities. |
Likely effects on deprivation levels in the local area Local effects are ranked as low. It is unlikely to have significant effects on local deprivation. However, the socio-economic benefits of fast broadband and global connectivity will be of benefit to the prospects of communities. |
|
(e) Tourism and recreation |
|
|
Creation of employment Coastal walking and beach activities are widespread, the latter particularly popular in South West England, South Wales, Northern Ireland and North West England. Boating activities show some clustering around Devon and Cornwall, South Wales, the Severn Estuary, North Wales and North West England. Sea angling activities are also widespread but are particularly high in Wales and South West England. Marine-related leisure activities in Scotland (surfing/ paddle-boarding, SCUBA diving and marine wildlife watching) are particularly prevalent on the Caithness Coast, West Coast, Hebrides and Northern Isles (UKMMAS, 2010 cited in Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) |
Effects on local labour utilisation (skills, job growth, unemployment) Local effects are ranked as high. Jobs created in the tourism and recreation industry are low skill in nature and tend to be seasonal and part time. These jobs are available to those in risk of unemployment but make a small contribution to productivity growth. |
|
Effects on local labour productivity (including wages, new businesses, investment) Local effects are ranked as low. Wages are low but speciality tourism might raise productivity. In many areas investment in tourism can be low as some coastal towns are attempting to diversify from a perceived over dependence on tourism. |
Likely effects on deprivation levels in the local area Local impacts are ranked as medium. Tourism and recreation are likely to have complex effects on deprivation. Although jobs are likely to be created for the low skilled and deprived, these jobs tend to be low wage, seasonal and part time (reducing the long-term impact of tourism and recreation on deprivation). |
|
(f) Defence - Military |
|
|
Creation of employment Naval bases provide employment throughout the UK. The principal port locations are Plymouth, Portsmouth and the Clyde. The Royal Navy employs 38,140 service personnel and 4,450 civilians (MOD (2015) and MOD (2016)) In general, civilianisation of the ports has occurred, which will mean that the local population has become employed rather than a military postings. New ship building projects have been relocated to Rosyth, however refit work continues at Portsmouth and other areas (e.g. submarines in Barrow, Clydebank). |
Effects on local labour utilisation (skills, job growth, unemployment) Local effects are ranked as medium. There is a wide variation in the amount of local labour that different military bases employ. Skill levels are higher than average. Loss of some military bases can lead to acute problems. |
|
Effects on local labour productivity (including wages, new businesses, investment) Local effects are ranked as medium. Although defence industries are not associated with the production of goods and services for exchange, their work contributes to the total economic activity in the economy in a similar way to other public sector workers. |
Likely effects on deprivation levels in the local area Local effects are variable, dependant on the profile of the local economy and the relative importance of defence establishments, different areas will be subject to different impacts on deprivation levels. |
|
(g) Marine aggregates |
|
|
Creation of employment Important to a number of areas around the coast of England, and Wales. In 2014, 58 office staff (shore support and administration) and 351 sea staff (ship crew) were directly employed in the marine aggregates extraction sector (BMAPA, 2015). The sector also creates a significant number of indirect jobs further down the supply chain (for example on wharves which receive marine aggregate, transportation of the product) and acts as an ‘enabler’ for employment generation in other industries, such as construction. |
Effects on local labour utilisation (skills, job growth, unemployment) Local effects are ranked as medium. The specifically marine element of this industry is small in job terms but, as noted, creates indirect jobs within the supply chain, hence industry growth could have some impacts in more peripheral job markets. |
|
Effects on local labour productivity (including wages, new businesses, investment) Local effects are ranked as medium. Sector data suggests that wages in the marine aggregates sector are slightly higher than average. Investment in aggregate extraction vessels is capital intensive, and higher levels of investment will tend to increase per capita output. |
Likely effects on deprivation levels in the local area Local effects are ranked as low. Majority of direct jobs within industry are skilled. Overall direct employment in sector is low. |
|
(h) Fisheries |
|
|
Creation of employment Coastal areas especially in the South West and North East of England, and around Scotland. (MMO statistics (2014); Jones (2013); Reed and others (2011)) |
Effects on local labour utilisation (skills, job growth, unemployment) Local effects are ranked as high. Skills are highly valued as they provide labour market entrants with experience to secure other marine-based employment. Trend of a decrease in total number of UK fishermen due to a reduction in fleet size and fishing opportunities. Local labour shortages are supplemented by foreign crew. (MMO statistics (2014); Jones (2013); Reed and others (2011)) |
|
Effects on local labour productivity (including wages, new businesses, investment) Local effects are ranked as medium. In some areas (e.g. Padstow, Cornwall), fishing has become linked to or become a highlight of tourism. There are also instances where an increase in niche markets for seafood (e.g. ‘locally caught’ seafood) and consumer’s willingness to pay premium prices for these products have resulted in the creation of new businesses and additional employment. However, these will have small and very localised effects. (MMO statistics (2014); Jones (2013); Reed and others (2011)) |
Likely effects on deprivation levels in the local area Local effects are ranked as medium. Development in coastal communities has provided alternative and additional avenues of employment. However, there are still cases where a decrease in fishing opportunities has negatively affected income, especially in cases where fishermen cannot diversify to other occupations and other family members cannot take on additional employment. Fishing also represents a small proportion of overall economic activity, but still important in terms of heritage and identity. (MMO statistics (2014); Jones (2013); Reed and others (2011)) |
| (i) Aquaculture | |
|
Creation of employment Finfish - production occurs predominately along the western coast of mainland Scotland, the Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland. There is also some finfish production in Northern Ireland but no sea-based finfish production in Wales or England (Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) and data sources therein). Shellfish –production is more evenly spread throughout the UK. Shellfish production in Scotland occurs predominately along the western coast of mainland Scotland, the Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland. In Wales, shellfish farming occurs predominately in the Menai Strait and Swansea Bay. In Northern Ireland the main shellfish production areas are Belfast Lough, Strangford Lough, Carlingford Lough, Lough Foyle and Larne Lough, In England, shellfish farming is focussed along the south and east coasts (Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) and references therein). In 2014, the aquaculture sector employed 1,670 staff in Scotland (1,325 sea-based finfish production, 345 shellfish), 65 in Northern Ireland (10 marine finfish, 55 shellfish), 33 in Wales (shellfish) and 265 in England (shellfish) (note all figures include full-time and part time staff) (Celtic Seas Partnership (2016) and references therein). In addition to direct employment, the industry supports employment indirectly within the supply chain, for example, equipment and feed supply and transport and processing of products. |
Effects on local labour utilisation (skills, job growth, unemployment) Local effects ranked as high. The majority of businesses predominantly offer employment to remote locations. For example, the Scottish aquaculture industry, which provides high and low skilled jobs across all parts of Scotland, has been highlighted for its ability to improve job prospects at a range of skill levels in remote communities which are otherwise challenged with respect to business development opportunities (Marine Scotland, 2014). |
|
Effects on local labour productivity (including wages, new businesses, investment) Local effects ranked as low. The available statistics suggest that pay is below average. As with fishing, aquaculture industries are not likely to contribute strongly towards local productivity. |
Likely effects on deprivation levels in the local area Local effects ranked as high. Jobs tend to be lower skilled in nature creating opportunities for those lower skilled individuals which are in greater risk of unemployment. |
|
(j) Surface water management and waste water treatment and disposal |
|
|
Creation of employment Surface water management and waste water treatment and disposal locations are widespread. In Scotland, most waste disposal occurs along the east coast. |
Effects on local labour utilisation (skills, job growth, unemployment) Local effects are ranked as medium. It can be assumed that a moderately high proportion of the workforce are employed locally. This would suggest employment in coastal areas would be positively affected by expansion in surface water management and waste water treatment and disposal. |
|
Effects on local labour productivity (including wages, new businesses, investment) Local effects are ranked as medium. Wage rates are slightly above average. The industry is a stable, utility function and is not going to drive local productivity to a great extent. |
Likely effects on deprivation levels in the local area Local effects are ranked as medium. Expansion of the surface water management and waste water treatment industries may have mild positive impacts on local deprivation. |
|
(k) Dredging and depositing of materials at sea |
|
|
Creation of employment The majority of material disposed at sea arises from maintenance or capital dredging operations. Dredging and disposal activities occur UK-wide but are focussed in depositional soft sediment areas where maritime industries are dependent on access to the coastline (for example the Northern and Southern North Sea, the English Channel and the Irish Sea). |
Effects on local labour utilisation (skills, job growth, unemployment) Local effects ranked as low. Direct employment will include dredging vessel crew and shore support staff. However, dredging is generally undertaken by a small number of national firms hence any requirement for local labour is likely to be very limited. |
|
Effects on local labour productivity (including wages, new businesses, investment) Local effects ranked as low, for reasons described under local labour utilisation. |
Likely effects on deprivation levels in the local area Local effects ranked as low, unlikely to have any effects on local deprivation. |
|
(l) Coastal defence |
|
|
Creation of employment UK-wide, although the requirement differs between regions. |
Effects on local labour utilisation (skills, job growth, unemployment) Local effects ranked as low. Although construction and maintenance is required, this is generally undertaken by a relatively low number of large national firms. Hence any requirement for local labour is likely to be small. |
|
Effects on local labour productivity (including wages, new businesses, investment) Local effects ranked as low. For reasons described under local labour utilisation. |
Likely effects on deprivation levels in the local area Local effects ranked as low. Unlikely to have any effects on local deprivation. |
| (m) Education | |
|
Creation of employment UK-wide |
Effects on local labour utilisation (skills, job growth, unemployment) Local effects ranked as medium. Skill level is higher than average. Graduates from Higher Education Institutes may continue to live locally following graduation. |
|
Effects on local labour productivity (including wages, new businesses, investment) Local effects ranked as medium. Greater levels of education are likely to boost productivity, wages and new business investment |
Likely effects on deprivation levels in the local area Local effects ranked as medium. Higher Education Institutes can contribute to a decreased demand for welfare support, an increase in civic participation, a lower demand for health services, and higher wages. |
|
(n) Research and Development |
|
|
Creation of employment UK-wide, particularly in towns and cities with Higher Education Institutes |
Effects on local labour utilisation (skills, job growth, unemployment) Local effects ranked as medium. Skill level is higher than average. Research and Development spin-offs may create local employment |
|
Effects on local labour productivity (including wages, new businesses, investment) local effects ranked as medium. Greater levels of Research and Development are likely to boost productivity, wages and new business investment |
Likely effects on deprivation levels in the local area Local effects ranked as medium. Research and Development can contribute to a decreased demand for welfare support, an increase in civic participation, a lower demand for health services, and higher wages. |
Analysis of the indicative costs of degradation
The cost of degradation compares the ‘Business as Usual’ scenario with the “Good Environmental Status scenario”. The ‘Business as Usual’ scenario is the expected state of the marine environment without any additional targets or programmes of measures. The “Good Environmental Status scenario” is the expected state of the environment in 2020, if the goals of the UK Marine Strategy are met and Good Environmental Status (GES) is achieved across all descriptors. The gap between GES and Business as Usual scenarios is the “cost of degradation and is estimated by valuing the difference in societal benefits between the two scenarios. This model is illustrated in Figure 1 below. Due to current uncertainties associated with how the current measures will meet the GES targets the costs of degradation is presented only indicatively.
Figure 1: Model demonstrates the relationship between Good Environmental Status and business as usual.
The programme of measures set out in the UK Marine Strategy Part 3 in 2015 has resulted in some descriptors broadly reaching Good Environmental Status (GES). Where this is the case, there is no cost of degradation. Based on assumptions around current uncertainties and future progress, it is assessed that this is the case for some elements of the ecosystem components in the Marine Strategy Framework directive Descriptor 1 (biodiversity is maintained) and Descriptor 4 (elements of food webs ensure long-term abundance and reproduction), and descriptors Descriptor 5 (eutrophication is minimised), Descriptor 7 (permanent alteration of hydrographical conditions does not adversely affect the ecosystem), and Descriptor 9 (contaminants in seafood are below safe levels).
For some descriptors, GES is not currently on course to be achieved by 2020, or there is uncertainty about whether GES will be achieved by 2020. Where this is the case, we have sought to identify additional targets, monitoring and research to address uncertainties or to put in place additional measures as soon as possible, and particularly in the next cycle from 2018 to 2024. This applies to several ecosystem components in Descriptor 1 (biodiversity is maintained), and 4 (elements of food webs ensure long-term abundance and reproduction) and to Descriptors 2 (non-indigenous species do not adversely alter the ecosystem), 6 (the sea floor integrity ensures functioning of the ecosystem), 10 (marine litter does not cause harm) and 11 (introduction of energy, including underwater noise, does not adversely affect the ecosystem).
The analysis also revealed that there are a number of difficulties associated with estimating the costs of degradation for this updated initial assessment compared with the situation in 2012. In some cases, Good Environmental Status will not be achieved due partially to natural or climate-related pressures acting on ecosystems which, at the moment are difficult to factor into the analysis. Furthermore, in the case of Descriptor 3 (the population of commercial fish species is healthy), and Descriptor 8 (concentrations of contaminants give no effects), the UK applied for an Article 14 exception from achieving GES by 2020 in its Marine Strategy Part 3 (HM Government, 2015) on programmes of measures, because there is evidence that it will not be possible for GES to be achieved by 2020 for reasons beyond our control. This exception also applies to fish under Descriptor 1 (Biological diversity) and Descriptor 4 (Food webs). There will be a ‘cost of degradation’ for these descriptors, but due to the uncertainties about when GES will be achieved, it is not possible to provide a quantitative estimate of the cost of degradation for these descriptors.
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Acknowledgements
Assessment Metadata
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